Ernst & Young offer a not so rosy outlook on Ireland - but Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) suggest strong return to growth in 2012....
Ernst & Young project GDP in Ireland will fall by 2.3% next year. against the European Commission forecast that Ireland's GDP will grow by 0.9% next year, while the Department of Finance’s own estimations show a growth of 1.75%......
Among the factors that would drag down the economy would be the scale of emigration, which would deplete Ireland’s labour supply, a likely raise in interest rates from the European Central Bank, and the government’s necessary spending cutbacks.
On a positive note E&Y suggest the export sector would remain steady but domestic demand will continue to slip.
Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research has predicted a second Celtic Tiger phase of economic growth, which it says will wipe out Ireland’s budget deficit as early as 2013. They are projecting almost no growith in 2011 but suggest the country will return to growth of 7.2% in 2012 and to 6% annually from 2013.
Who's right?
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